The financial markets reflect numerous influences: political shocks, statements by central bankers, economic data, oil price and exchange rate movements, and natural disasters. However, there is one common thread: the economic cycle. It integrates many of these factors and is thus the driving force behind all liquid asset classes and their segments.
This means that those who understand the economic cycle can also anticipate the overarching financial market trends. Our goal is therefore to identify economic turning points at an early stage. To this end, we have developed a comprehensive system of proprietary leading indicators that identifies future economic trends well in advance of the official indicators. In a process of information consolidation, a forecast of key economic data is then gradually compiled.
We use our proven fundamental models in risk-averse absolute return strategies and risk-minimised multi-asset strategies. In this way, we leverage price gains from different asset classes for regular performance contributions.
Financial Market Monitor
- Our weekly flagship publication, basic document for Bantleon's investment committee meetings
- Ongoing presentation of our economic and financial market outlook with the help of our proprietary leading indicators
- The financial market outlook is essentially based on our macroeconomic outlook
- Overview of our forecasts of the most important data for the coming week from the USA and the Eurozone
Financial Market Outlook
- Supplements the FMM once a month
- A fundamental and longer-term perspective is taken
- Detailed presentation of the economic and capital market outlook for the coming months and quarters
- Detailed GDP forecasts for the USA and the Eurozone
- Assessment of key asset classes (government bonds, equities, corporate bonds, commodities, etc.)
- Overview of Bantleon's current asset allocation
- At lease once a quarter also published in English
Detailed analyses
- In depth research (one or two per month) on interesting current topics like economy, inflation, labour market, monetary policy, real estate market, debt, capital market and asset allocation
- Strict adherence to the »Bantleon Research Framework«: statements and forecasts are consistently derived and substantiated
Short commentaries/flashes
- Compact research on interesting current topics like economy, inflation, labour market, monetary policy, real estate market, debt, capital market and asset allocation
- Strict adherence to the »Bantleon Research Framework«: statements and forecasts are consistently derived and substantiated
Ad-hoc statements
- Weekly commentary on key economic data (ISM, ifo, US labor market, consumer prices, etc.) immediately after their release and comments on the latest key interest rate decisions
Forecasts of key economic data
- Forecasts of the most important data sets of the coming week from the USA, Eurozone, Germany, France, Spain and Italy
- Among others: GDP, inflation, leading indicators (ISM, EMI, ifo, ZEW, etc.), unemployment rate, industrial production, new orders, retail sales, etc.
Announcement of forecast revisions of weekly economic data
- Ad-hoc information for adjustments to our forecasts
- Individual data tables for the best possible processing of forecast data
Exchange with our analysts
- Bilateral exchange of information with our analysts on current economic and capital market topics
- Detailed explanation/classification of point forecasts
- Discussion agenda defined by you
Chief Economist Daniel Hartmann, PhD began his career at Bantleon in 2005 after completing his academic work and doctorate »summa cum laude« at the University of Stuttgart-Hohenheim (DE) and is responsible for financial market forecasts (bond yields & equity prices) and the analysis and forecast of global economic and monetary policy.
Harald Preißler, PhD, former Member of the Executive Board and now Vice Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Bantleon AG and Capital Market Strategist, laid the analytical foundation for the economic research that has received multiple awards from Bloomberg and Refinitiv. The economist graduated »summa cum laude« from the University of Würzburg (DE).