The financial markets are influenced by many factors, including political shocks, central bank guidance, economic data, oil prices, exchange rates and natural disasters. The one constant, however, is the economy. It distils various other factors and thus drives all liquid asset classes and their subsegments.
This means that tracking the economic cycle accurately makes it possible to anticipate overarching trends on the financial markets. With this in mind, we aim to identify turning points in the cycle at the earliest possible stage using a comprehensive system of leading indicators developed in-house that flags up future macro trends well ahead of the official indicators. We then gradually consolidate the information to form an overall opinion, which in turn gives rise to forecasts for key economic figures.
We use our proven fundamental models for risk-averse absolute return strategies and have also been using them since 2011 for risk-minimised multi-asset strategies. They allow us to harness capital gains from a range of asset classes for regular performance contributions.