Financial markets are influenced by many factors: political shocks, central bank announcements, economic data, oil price and exchange rate movements, and natural disasters. However, there is a common theme: the economic cycle. It integrates most of these factors and is the driving force behind all liquid asset classes and their segments.
This means that tracking the economic cycle accurately makes it possible to anticipate overarching trends on the financial markets. With this in mind, we aim to identify turning points in the cycle at the earliest possible stage using a comprehensive system of leading indicators developed in-house that flags up future macro trends well ahead of the official indicators. We then gradually consolidate the information to form an overall opinion, which in turn gives rise to forecasts for key economic figures.
Since 2011, we have been applying our proven fundamental models to risk-averse absolute return and multi asset strategies. They allow us to harvest capital gains from a range of asset classes for regular performance contributions.