Accurate Forecasting through Economic Research

Our objective is not just to forecast a possibly wide range of economic indices in time, but also to identify accurately the most important factors affecting the future development of capital markets yields.

Simply analysing and processing periodic flows of economic and inflation data may advertise skills but it does not create any true added value for the investment management. In case of doubt, the ever-increasing flow of data only confuses matters further.

The success of the bond manager Bantleon is due to continuously establishing and extending leads in the supply of information. The economic research is specialised in developing its own analysis and forecasting instruments based on quantitative and statistical methods. Turning points in the economic climate and inflationary trends are therefore detected up to 18 months before the general consensus.

The economic research of the bond manager Bantleon is therefore no end-in-itself. Unlike in most investment banks, the analyses are not produced for marketing purposes.

The key task is to analyse the fundamental, technical and quantitative framework conditions of European and US bond markets. The crucial factors determining changes in yield are at the centre of this process: the interaction between inflation, economy and monetary policy. Econometric based yield structure and yield spread forecasts are produced on this basis.

The analysis results are continuously updated and made available to the investment committees of the bond manager Bantleon. The »Quantitative Analysis« segment also performs important cross-sectional functions within Bantleon. Statistical methods and processes are very important in Risk Controlling and Portfolio Management in particular.